Day 7 of the 2026 Winter Olympics in Milan-Cortina is shaping up to be one of the most dramatic of the Games, centered on a pursuit of history on the ice and a high-stakes legal battle in the courtroom.
Optimism is building on Wall Street as a string of favorable labor market data sets the stage for a critical inflation report this Friday. Investors are closely watching the January Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, which is expected to signal continued cooling in the U.S. economy.
The Forecast: A Return to Pre-Tariff Levels?
According to the Dow Jones consensus, the headline CPI is projected to show a 2.5% annual increase. If this forecast holds true, it would mark a significant milestone:
Mirroring May 2025: A 2.5% reading would bring inflation back to levels seen in May of last year.
The Tariff Factor: This dip is particularly notable because it follows the April 2025 "liberation day" tariffs enacted by President Donald Trump. While many economists initially feared these trade barriers would trigger a sharp inflationary spike, the current trajectory suggests a more resilient cooling trend.
Trends and Monthly Momentum
The report follows a steady decline from the 3%+ peak recorded in September 2024. To put the January expectations in perspective:
| Metric | December Actual | January Forecast (YoY) | January Forecast (Monthly) |
| Headline CPI | 2.7% | 2.5% | +0.3% |
| Core CPI (Excl. Food/Energy) | 2.6% | N/A | +0.3% |